SPX daily channel

DJIA - *still* in the channel!

Zero participation on the way down and lots of tell-tale divergences at the low - is it just me or are "they" getting sloppy these days?

EURUSD

Tempted? I know I am..

SPX:TRIN - a new ratio..

STILL not much happening out there, so I have had time to play around in StockCharts - and happened upon this ratio... while I realise there is rather scant chance I am the very first to come across this, a Fibonacci simple moving average makes very interesting viewing indeed:

SPX:TRIN on StockCharts

DJIA channel (update)

Not much happening - still standing firm. I get the feeling there is an immense battle of opposing forces occurring right now - helicopter Ben with his finger in the dyke as the cracks start to multiply kinda thing.. hmm.

Meanwhile, erstwhile favourite indicator AUDJPY is starting to fold:

And might it be worth a post-earnings punt short on GS right now?

GS on StockCharts

Cake... or Death?

VIX divergence

Higher close on the SPX, but Mr VIX is not playing ball with a matching new low - classic topping behaviour, unless the market makers can erase this divergence sharpish. A very nice Elliott wave too on the 10 min last 4 days.

EURJPY - Broken Neck

I was watching this head & shoulders pattern on the EURJPY last night, waiting to see if it would break - and then I went to bed as I was falling asleep!

Guess I'll have to wait to see if it retests...

GBPCHF - Range-bound

Essentially range-bound for the last few days, looks to be coiling as evidenced by the bunching MAs; should be an interesting move whichever way it breaks.

GBPEUR - Harbinger of Euro Weakness

Naturally this is just one possible interpretation of the tea leaves, but the potential for a turn is there all the same.

Bonus chart - USDJPY:

DJIA channel

Interesting to note we are still in a channel that kept the action through most of primary wave 2 all in 2009 and this year, albeit we are now back in the bottom half and bumping up against the mid line.

Close-up:

SPX:VIX - Glass Ceiling

So, we bump up against the underside of the long-term trend once more - and on a new moon to boot - chart says we should have a decent throw at a sell-off from here - but how much longer will it climb the underside of this trend?

SPX:VIX on StockCharts

All Hail Steve Jobs

What a success story Apple is - does anyone not like them? I just look at the legs from 1998, 2003 and 2009 with awe.

I've painted a wedge on here, but there are only two touches on the lower line and it doesn't hold much water because of that; this could easily morph into a channel upon an eventual correction occurring. From the upper line (which has more to commend it), it looks as though this one has headroom yet.

As someone much wiser than me once said, it's not when you sell, but when you buy...

AAPL monthly on Stockcharts

Some charts I was looking at this week

Some charts for ya to be going on with.

And a sexy Saturday tune to go with:

I Crave Paris by Aeroplane (Official)

Not posted in a while

It's easier just to post charts as and when on Disqus over at Mole's place. But I thought I'd get this one down, just in case. Was wondering whether anyone else on the planet had seen the ending diagonal in the SPX into the close tonight, but maybe they were just keeping schtum about it.

Target is the origin of wave 1, which would be around SPX 1055. It is a full moon tomorrow and the bears all seem to have given up in disgust, so you never know.

NYADV, NYDEC

CHFJPY

Weekly:

Daily:

And the zoomed-in view on the hourly:

And with that, I think I'll be off to bed. Good night.

JNK:TLT - risk appetite edging back?

Does Yahoo! Finance know something we don't?

P3 - it had to happen sooner or later...

UPDATE: possibly a triangle here, so does that mean it should break upwards? Or has it already failed and broken down?

VIX

SPX weekly support

DAX

GOLD:SILVER saying...?

EQT

SPX bearish wedge

Whatever the correct count is, it appears we are due some weakness in the coming days.

GS looking weak

AAPL

One to watch next week.

Mainstream Media Indicator - USD edition

Full dose of Seltzer, ah, wisdom is avaiable here.

NYAD line 1993-

I am feeling like a kid in a sweetshop now that I've finally signed up to StockCharts and am making the most of the treasure-trove of historical data that they have.

Further to yesterday's look at the NYAD line, I'm looking today as far back as the StockCharts data allows, which is 1993.

So what can we see?

Well, NYAD and the index may get out of whack, but they always come back together sooner or later and the market is stable so long as they are so. Interesting to note the take-off of NYAD in the mid-90's that foreshadowed the explosive blow-off of SPX into the 2000 top.

Also, the monster divergence of NYAD in the 2 years previous to the top - anyone looking at this chart would have known there was something rotten in the state of Denmark - but it's also a salutory lesson in not cashing out too early. After all, as already stated, this divergence lasted for 2 whole years, and you would have missed the most profitable bit of the move, had you cashed out in 1998, or - God forbid - gone short.

Likewise, NYAD bottomed (perversely) as the SPX topped, setting up an equally monster bullish divergence into the 2003 low. We then have a period where the market was in a stable bull phase, right up until a small divergence of NYAD dropping off gave a very nice signal right at the 2007 top.

So now to the interesting bit - what of since then? It looks as if the market has gotten way ahead of itself to the downside by this measure - and indeed, NYAD has just made a new high. From the RSI and MACD divergences, it appears that this may well be a lasting top in NYAD, which would be good, as it's going to have to come down some to get back in sync with the SPX.

The other points to note would be that as long as the NYAD is so far above SPX, might it exert an upwards attraction as the two eventually move back in sync? And also, that we have no divergence here at the May SPX high short-term - there is of course the monster divergence between 2007 and 2009 - NYAD up, SPX down. This could resolve itself with NYAD crashing faster than SPX.

We may not see one shorter-term of course, but it's food for thought when considering the perennial "is this it - yet?" question.

US Dollar Index

SPX:USD

Constant-dollar SPX. Hat-tip goes to Attila for originally publishing this one a few months back, but it's not lost any of its power in the meantime.

And now?

Howling at the Moon

Mr VIX

The lesson of late would appear to be: wait for a divergence?

NYAD - too far, too fast?

I thought I'd check back with how it looked in 2007/8 for a bit of comparison:

Pause for thought.

UPDATE: but then again, maybe we should do an apples-for-apples comparison, and see what happened during the third wave of the 2007-9 decline. When I do that, it seems that maybe what we are looking at is a replay of then:

UPDATE 2: errrrrr, except NYAD was leading then, rather than lagging as now. So back to my original conclusion!