GBPCHF - Range-bound

Essentially range-bound for the last few days, looks to be coiling as evidenced by the bunching MAs; should be an interesting move whichever way it breaks.

GBPEUR - Harbinger of Euro Weakness

Naturally this is just one possible interpretation of the tea leaves, but the potential for a turn is there all the same.

Bonus chart - USDJPY:

GBPCHF

Sometimes it's best to just keep it simple.

GBPUSD triangle

I like this one as a rally into the general election this coming Thursday, May 6, would set up a nice buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news opportunity, especially with the Tories coming back in the polls now.

Whatever happened to that triangle in GBPEUR?

It left it until the last possible moment to turn is what. I don't have a copy of the Elliott Wave Principle to hand, but I'm fairly sure that the pattern is invalidated if wave e goes beyond the high of wave c; the high on Friday was a mere 7bps from doing so, but then went on to paint a massive bearish engulfing candle.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this one gap down at the open tonight.

Swissie update

Quick look at some things Swiss.

Looks poised to strenghten imminently against GBP:



Already started to against USD (this latter ties in nicely with the bullish EUR forecast - wish I'd been paying closer attention to this pair earlier - so many to keep track of though!):

Euro about to get its mojo back?

It would appear that the long-term triangle I have been watching has reached maturity; we are there - wherever there is.

Think I might get out of my EURUSD short...

UPDATE: talking of which, I was looking again at EURUSD. Clearly, we could have seen the low already last week, but I was having difficulty squaring this with a three wave rise and then a seeming impulse down from the corrective high. There is a way, however...

UPDATE 2: got carried away and was a bit early shorting this mother - got stopped out - but the bearish engulfing candle came right on cue...

Time to sell the rip on Monday methinks!

More on GBPEUR

Looks from this like either THE uncle point or at least an intermediate one might be approaching next few days

But then again, always join all the dots, cos the picture might look a little different

GBPEUR

Looking at this pair the other way up tonight just because we can (and therefore probably should for the sake of balance/overcoming any bias)

Longer-term view on the daily - pretty clear we are in a fourth wave. Last time I looked at the full chart, I think it shaped up like a massive ABC - we are currently then in 4 of C in my preferred count:

And a bit of a zoomed-in view. Basically we may hit the top of the triangle, or over- or under-shoot it - at any rate, a break of the current trend line would seem to be worth a flutter...

EURGBP - the b€llweather?

EURGBP is tracing out a fairly clear triangle, as noted earlier. Things are still looking good for the end-of-month turn window, I think.

The funny thing is what all this might mean for equities - after all, conventional wisdom has it that a strengthening dollar would be bearish for equities, which hasn't really been borne out by events thus far. So, what then would a weakening dollar do? Who fecking knows.

GBPCHF - decidedly poorly (still)

Funny that when I came to type the title for this post, I found that the title above was already in the browser memory! Ah, poor old GBP, it's really not in a good way... that might sound like schadenfreude, but it's going to get way beyond that stage, I fear.

EURGBP wedge

Previously, I had thought that we were in a large scale correction for this pair, but this could well be a developing Elliott fourth wave triangle, in which case a sharp run to new highs would be in order, probably in the first half of this year.

GBPCHF - decidedly poorly

I start a new job in Switzerland this week, so this chart looks velly good to these eyes.

GBPEUR bearish wedge