EURUSD

Tempted? I know I am..

EURJPY - Broken Neck

I was watching this head & shoulders pattern on the EURJPY last night, waiting to see if it would break - and then I went to bed as I was falling asleep!

Guess I'll have to wait to see if it retests...

GBPEUR - Harbinger of Euro Weakness

Naturally this is just one possible interpretation of the tea leaves, but the potential for a turn is there all the same.

Bonus chart - USDJPY:

EURUSD reversal

So an emphatic turn in EURUSD, concordant with my analysis in the GBPEUR pair. Could this be the start of a major strengthening of the Euro?

Whatever happened to that triangle in GBPEUR?

It left it until the last possible moment to turn is what. I don't have a copy of the Elliott Wave Principle to hand, but I'm fairly sure that the pattern is invalidated if wave e goes beyond the high of wave c; the high on Friday was a mere 7bps from doing so, but then went on to paint a massive bearish engulfing candle.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this one gap down at the open tonight.

Euro about to get its mojo back?

It would appear that the long-term triangle I have been watching has reached maturity; we are there - wherever there is.

Think I might get out of my EURUSD short...

UPDATE: talking of which, I was looking again at EURUSD. Clearly, we could have seen the low already last week, but I was having difficulty squaring this with a three wave rise and then a seeming impulse down from the corrective high. There is a way, however...

UPDATE 2: got carried away and was a bit early shorting this mother - got stopped out - but the bearish engulfing candle came right on cue...

Time to sell the rip on Monday methinks!

EURUSD: chocks away?

There is always a bullish alternative count; in this case that would be that we already completed wave 5 and thus the huge impulse down from the November high.

But it looks a bit short - under 61.8% of wave 1 - so I figure it's got to be worth a punt short at this point as the alternative (pictured) is that we are about to start (or have already) wave iii of 5 down.

More on GBPEUR

Looks from this like either THE uncle point or at least an intermediate one might be approaching next few days

But then again, always join all the dots, cos the picture might look a little different

EURUSD - progress of wave 5

GBPEUR

Looking at this pair the other way up tonight just because we can (and therefore probably should for the sake of balance/overcoming any bias)

Longer-term view on the daily - pretty clear we are in a fourth wave. Last time I looked at the full chart, I think it shaped up like a massive ABC - we are currently then in 4 of C in my preferred count:

And a bit of a zoomed-in view. Basically we may hit the top of the triangle, or over- or under-shoot it - at any rate, a break of the current trend line would seem to be worth a flutter...

EURGBP - the b€llweather?

EURGBP is tracing out a fairly clear triangle, as noted earlier. Things are still looking good for the end-of-month turn window, I think.

The funny thing is what all this might mean for equities - after all, conventional wisdom has it that a strengthening dollar would be bearish for equities, which hasn't really been borne out by events thus far. So, what then would a weakening dollar do? Who fecking knows.

EURUSD 30min update

EURUSD looking a little sluggish

// just to note, that iv could very well be (a) of iv (maybe even more likely) - happily, that wouldn't change the immediate outlook

EURGBP wedge

Previously, I had thought that we were in a large scale correction for this pair, but this could well be a developing Elliott fourth wave triangle, in which case a sharp run to new highs would be in order, probably in the first half of this year.

EURUSD weekly

GBPEUR bearish wedge

EURUSD weekly