SPX daily channel

VIX divergence

Higher close on the SPX, but Mr VIX is not playing ball with a matching new low - classic topping behaviour, unless the market makers can erase this divergence sharpish. A very nice Elliott wave too on the 10 min last 4 days.

Some charts I was looking at this week

Some charts for ya to be going on with.

And a sexy Saturday tune to go with:

I Crave Paris by Aeroplane (Official)

Not posted in a while

It's easier just to post charts as and when on Disqus over at Mole's place. But I thought I'd get this one down, just in case. Was wondering whether anyone else on the planet had seen the ending diagonal in the SPX into the close tonight, but maybe they were just keeping schtum about it.

Target is the origin of wave 1, which would be around SPX 1055. It is a full moon tomorrow and the bears all seem to have given up in disgust, so you never know.

JNK:TLT - risk appetite edging back?

VIX

SPX weekly support

GOLD:SILVER saying...?

SPX bearish wedge

Whatever the correct count is, it appears we are due some weakness in the coming days.

NYAD line 1993-

I am feeling like a kid in a sweetshop now that I've finally signed up to StockCharts and am making the most of the treasure-trove of historical data that they have.

Further to yesterday's look at the NYAD line, I'm looking today as far back as the StockCharts data allows, which is 1993.

So what can we see?

Well, NYAD and the index may get out of whack, but they always come back together sooner or later and the market is stable so long as they are so. Interesting to note the take-off of NYAD in the mid-90's that foreshadowed the explosive blow-off of SPX into the 2000 top.

Also, the monster divergence of NYAD in the 2 years previous to the top - anyone looking at this chart would have known there was something rotten in the state of Denmark - but it's also a salutory lesson in not cashing out too early. After all, as already stated, this divergence lasted for 2 whole years, and you would have missed the most profitable bit of the move, had you cashed out in 1998, or - God forbid - gone short.

Likewise, NYAD bottomed (perversely) as the SPX topped, setting up an equally monster bullish divergence into the 2003 low. We then have a period where the market was in a stable bull phase, right up until a small divergence of NYAD dropping off gave a very nice signal right at the 2007 top.

So now to the interesting bit - what of since then? It looks as if the market has gotten way ahead of itself to the downside by this measure - and indeed, NYAD has just made a new high. From the RSI and MACD divergences, it appears that this may well be a lasting top in NYAD, which would be good, as it's going to have to come down some to get back in sync with the SPX.

The other points to note would be that as long as the NYAD is so far above SPX, might it exert an upwards attraction as the two eventually move back in sync? And also, that we have no divergence here at the May SPX high short-term - there is of course the monster divergence between 2007 and 2009 - NYAD up, SPX down. This could resolve itself with NYAD crashing faster than SPX.

We may not see one shorter-term of course, but it's food for thought when considering the perennial "is this it - yet?" question.

Howling at the Moon

Mr VIX

The lesson of late would appear to be: wait for a divergence?

NYAD - too far, too fast?

I thought I'd check back with how it looked in 2007/8 for a bit of comparison:

Pause for thought.

UPDATE: but then again, maybe we should do an apples-for-apples comparison, and see what happened during the third wave of the 2007-9 decline. When I do that, it seems that maybe what we are looking at is a replay of then:

UPDATE 2: errrrrr, except NYAD was leading then, rather than lagging as now. So back to my original conclusion!

Some bullish indicators

SPX abc?

Was just reading this over on Zero Hedge.

Now you don't have to agree with his w4 count (it's only an exercise in contingency thinking anyway), but it got me thinking. There is the nagging suspicion that the fall into May 6 is an abc - then I noticed this:

A possibility to keep an eye on.

SPX phew

Looks like the bulls pulled their hides out of the bacon beef slicer just in the nick of time.

NYLOW inverted

I think this makes a pretty eloquent case that we have now entered a new phase.

Some VIX ratios

$VIX:$VXO is neutral-to-bullish I would say:

Whereas both $VXV:$VIX...

...and plain old inverted $VIX look to be testing prior support from beneath, which if rejected would suggest a down week in prospect.

Fuck it

Going short here

Buy gold, sell silver

Sell everything actually.