Reading the SPY:GLD runes

Looking at the SPY:GLD chart, it looks very much like an ending diagonal is in progress and that we are most likely in wave 5 thereof:

What might this mean for the main SPX itself then? I'm thinking that (to I am sure, no-one at all's surprise) that this would indicate that the main market still has a little more upside love to give us before it's done.

So what is GLD looking like then? Well this is either in a long-term wedge or a channel - either way, there is a fairly solid up-trend intact there - which is bad news for anyone expecting the SPY/SPX to plummet any time soon:

Blow-off tops all round then.

EURUSD reversal

So an emphatic turn in EURUSD, concordant with my analysis in the GBPEUR pair. Could this be the start of a major strengthening of the Euro?

Whatever happened to that triangle in GBPEUR?

It left it until the last possible moment to turn is what. I don't have a copy of the Elliott Wave Principle to hand, but I'm fairly sure that the pattern is invalidated if wave e goes beyond the high of wave c; the high on Friday was a mere 7bps from doing so, but then went on to paint a massive bearish engulfing candle.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this one gap down at the open tonight.

SPX:USD

Interesting that from the international perspective, US stocks are struggling to climb at all - 15 is looking like a formidable barrier.

Fuck it

Going short here

Swissie update

Quick look at some things Swiss.

Looks poised to strenghten imminently against GBP:



Already started to against USD (this latter ties in nicely with the bullish EUR forecast - wish I'd been paying closer attention to this pair earlier - so many to keep track of though!):

IWM - a little more room to run

Heavy put-buying Friday in IWM, MET and XLF, which makes me doubtful that a top is at hand just yet - the above chart shows we still have room to run up before running into the upper boundary of the expanding diagonal.

Euro about to get its mojo back?

It would appear that the long-term triangle I have been watching has reached maturity; we are there - wherever there is.

Think I might get out of my EURUSD short...

UPDATE: talking of which, I was looking again at EURUSD. Clearly, we could have seen the low already last week, but I was having difficulty squaring this with a three wave rise and then a seeming impulse down from the corrective high. There is a way, however...

UPDATE 2: got carried away and was a bit early shorting this mother - got stopped out - but the bearish engulfing candle came right on cue...

Time to sell the rip on Monday methinks!

EURUSD: chocks away?

There is always a bullish alternative count; in this case that would be that we already completed wave 5 and thus the huge impulse down from the November high.

But it looks a bit short - under 61.8% of wave 1 - so I figure it's got to be worth a punt short at this point as the alternative (pictured) is that we are about to start (or have already) wave iii of 5 down.

Buy gold, sell silver

Sell everything actually.

SPX, gold, highs and lows