Reading the SPY:GLD runes

Looking at the SPY:GLD chart, it looks very much like an ending diagonal is in progress and that we are most likely in wave 5 thereof:

What might this mean for the main SPX itself then? I'm thinking that (to I am sure, no-one at all's surprise) that this would indicate that the main market still has a little more upside love to give us before it's done.

So what is GLD looking like then? Well this is either in a long-term wedge or a channel - either way, there is a fairly solid up-trend intact there - which is bad news for anyone expecting the SPY/SPX to plummet any time soon:

Blow-off tops all round then.

EURUSD reversal

So an emphatic turn in EURUSD, concordant with my analysis in the GBPEUR pair. Could this be the start of a major strengthening of the Euro?

Whatever happened to that triangle in GBPEUR?

It left it until the last possible moment to turn is what. I don't have a copy of the Elliott Wave Principle to hand, but I'm fairly sure that the pattern is invalidated if wave e goes beyond the high of wave c; the high on Friday was a mere 7bps from doing so, but then went on to paint a massive bearish engulfing candle.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this one gap down at the open tonight.

SPX:USD

Interesting that from the international perspective, US stocks are struggling to climb at all - 15 is looking like a formidable barrier.

Fuck it

Going short here

Swissie update

Quick look at some things Swiss.

Looks poised to strenghten imminently against GBP:



Already started to against USD (this latter ties in nicely with the bullish EUR forecast - wish I'd been paying closer attention to this pair earlier - so many to keep track of though!):

IWM - a little more room to run

Heavy put-buying Friday in IWM, MET and XLF, which makes me doubtful that a top is at hand just yet - the above chart shows we still have room to run up before running into the upper boundary of the expanding diagonal.