Huge triangle in Cable right now, that may have bottomed today - I think we may retest the highs.
This would lend support to a wave 1 high in the US Dollar Index and imminent dollar weakness across the board as it retraces. This in turn would support a bounce in equities IMO.
Was looking at the long-term Elliott Wave count over the weekend (and I really need to get hold of data going a lot further back). There are multiple ways we could label the recent action, but here's one that's actually quite bullish short-term, and where I think we actually are (fits in with the triangle seen above).
Saturday 30 January 2010
Friday 29 January 2010
Hello and goodnight
First post. Was going to post some charts with Elliott wave markings on them, but can't get Photoshop working, so will just post them nude.
FTSE 100 hourly spread
Peaked Monday 11th January, then we have a fairly clear 1,2,3 down and after that it spends most of the week going sideways in what can only be a fourth wave. Stop-sweeps on the Friday and then down into the wave 1 low. There's a nice 61.8% flat retracement from there and then the broad meat of the decline in the third wave down into the close on Friday 24th.
So most of this week, contrary to what the level of whooping and cheering from the bears would have you believe has actually been spent going sideways in a monster fourth wave. From the low an hour before the close a week ago to where we are now is less than one hundred points.
Elliott form counts complete at this point and we have wave 5 and wave 1 equality and a nice little channel overthrow to boot.
A quick look at the weekly reveals we're at a level where we should find a bit of support from the area September through start November.
Looks ugly after that though - next support is around 4500-4700 - ouch.
Things a little more nuanced on the daily - thing that jumps out at me is that it looks like a five straight away.
What chance we bounce on Monday?
Friday tune: a requiem for the recovery
FTSE 100 hourly spread
Peaked Monday 11th January, then we have a fairly clear 1,2,3 down and after that it spends most of the week going sideways in what can only be a fourth wave. Stop-sweeps on the Friday and then down into the wave 1 low. There's a nice 61.8% flat retracement from there and then the broad meat of the decline in the third wave down into the close on Friday 24th.
So most of this week, contrary to what the level of whooping and cheering from the bears would have you believe has actually been spent going sideways in a monster fourth wave. From the low an hour before the close a week ago to where we are now is less than one hundred points.
Elliott form counts complete at this point and we have wave 5 and wave 1 equality and a nice little channel overthrow to boot.
A quick look at the weekly reveals we're at a level where we should find a bit of support from the area September through start November.
Looks ugly after that though - next support is around 4500-4700 - ouch.
Things a little more nuanced on the daily - thing that jumps out at me is that it looks like a five straight away.
What chance we bounce on Monday?
Friday tune: a requiem for the recovery
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