EQT

SPX bearish wedge

Whatever the correct count is, it appears we are due some weakness in the coming days.

GS looking weak

AAPL

One to watch next week.

Mainstream Media Indicator - USD edition

Full dose of Seltzer, ah, wisdom is avaiable here.

NYAD line 1993-

I am feeling like a kid in a sweetshop now that I've finally signed up to StockCharts and am making the most of the treasure-trove of historical data that they have.

Further to yesterday's look at the NYAD line, I'm looking today as far back as the StockCharts data allows, which is 1993.

So what can we see?

Well, NYAD and the index may get out of whack, but they always come back together sooner or later and the market is stable so long as they are so. Interesting to note the take-off of NYAD in the mid-90's that foreshadowed the explosive blow-off of SPX into the 2000 top.

Also, the monster divergence of NYAD in the 2 years previous to the top - anyone looking at this chart would have known there was something rotten in the state of Denmark - but it's also a salutory lesson in not cashing out too early. After all, as already stated, this divergence lasted for 2 whole years, and you would have missed the most profitable bit of the move, had you cashed out in 1998, or - God forbid - gone short.

Likewise, NYAD bottomed (perversely) as the SPX topped, setting up an equally monster bullish divergence into the 2003 low. We then have a period where the market was in a stable bull phase, right up until a small divergence of NYAD dropping off gave a very nice signal right at the 2007 top.

So now to the interesting bit - what of since then? It looks as if the market has gotten way ahead of itself to the downside by this measure - and indeed, NYAD has just made a new high. From the RSI and MACD divergences, it appears that this may well be a lasting top in NYAD, which would be good, as it's going to have to come down some to get back in sync with the SPX.

The other points to note would be that as long as the NYAD is so far above SPX, might it exert an upwards attraction as the two eventually move back in sync? And also, that we have no divergence here at the May SPX high short-term - there is of course the monster divergence between 2007 and 2009 - NYAD up, SPX down. This could resolve itself with NYAD crashing faster than SPX.

We may not see one shorter-term of course, but it's food for thought when considering the perennial "is this it - yet?" question.

US Dollar Index

SPX:USD

Constant-dollar SPX. Hat-tip goes to Attila for originally publishing this one a few months back, but it's not lost any of its power in the meantime.

And now?

Howling at the Moon

Mr VIX

The lesson of late would appear to be: wait for a divergence?

NYAD - too far, too fast?

I thought I'd check back with how it looked in 2007/8 for a bit of comparison:

Pause for thought.

UPDATE: but then again, maybe we should do an apples-for-apples comparison, and see what happened during the third wave of the 2007-9 decline. When I do that, it seems that maybe what we are looking at is a replay of then:

UPDATE 2: errrrrr, except NYAD was leading then, rather than lagging as now. So back to my original conclusion!

GS long?

GS has been topping/bottoming before the market of late, so right about now might be opportune to try a little long on the squid:

Some bullish indicators

SPX abc?

Was just reading this over on Zero Hedge.

Now you don't have to agree with his w4 count (it's only an exercise in contingency thinking anyway), but it got me thinking. There is the nagging suspicion that the fall into May 6 is an abc - then I noticed this:

A possibility to keep an eye on.

SPX phew

Looks like the bulls pulled their hides out of the bacon beef slicer just in the nick of time.

DAX

Man, I wish I'd been watching this chart May 6th. A no-brainer long at the low.

Still, right now, if not a no-brainer, there is a decent chance we made a low here - DAX was nowhere near a new low today, unlike the SPX.

A bullish potential count - target would be new highs:

LIBOR:TED

Yet another ratio chart. Interesting as it appears to show a bit of a potential channel. Again, we're kind of in no-man's-land at the min, but if if previous form continues then we should be looking for a touch somewhere off the bottom.

Bit of a lagging indicator though. Sometimes.

Gold weekly

NYLOW inverted

I think this makes a pretty eloquent case that we have now entered a new phase.

Some VIX ratios

$VIX:$VXO is neutral-to-bullish I would say:

Whereas both $VXV:$VIX...

...and plain old inverted $VIX look to be testing prior support from beneath, which if rejected would suggest a down week in prospect.

Call/Put Ratio

Guess who just figured out how to do inverse ratios on Stockcharts...

The Vampire Squid Indicator

It worked in March 2009 - will it work now?

VIX:VXO

This rather excellent post on the Slope got me playing around - if we flip the ratios suggested, it becomes easier to spot any divergences.

Lo and behold...

Fuckers like this...

A gross oversimplication, but hey it made me laugh..

GBPCHF

Sometimes it's best to just keep it simple.

GBPUSD triangle

I like this one as a rally into the general election this coming Thursday, May 6, would set up a nice buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news opportunity, especially with the Tories coming back in the polls now.