Tories 2% Ahead in Polls

FTSE spread - oh dearie me..

FTSE is pretty typical of all the equity markets right here - it looks set up for some serious imminent downside.

GBPCHF - decidedly poorly

I start a new job in Switzerland this week, so this chart looks velly good to these eyes.

ES - RIP wave 2 [again]?

[of course as this is the top of wave Y, we could also get wave B down or indeed another X wave and then wave Z - 61.8% retrace does seem to be enough although maybe the time is a little bit short]

[[then again, wave 1, 4 weeks exactly, this would make wave 2, 2 weeks exactly so...]]

Friday night tune

EURUSD weekly

GBPEUR bearish wedge

Go Aussie!

AUDUSD - goose cooked or one more high?

I really like AUDUSD as a potential short, but I'm not sure if it's quite done to the upside just yet. It's hanging onto the trendline and 50% fib support right now. I suppose this could make a ballsy overnight long. But not for me!

UPDATE: Ok, maybe just a cheeky one - I can count a double zig-zag down from the high and we're expecting more upside from equities tomorrow, so that is supporting - if I'm right it should test the 61.8% fib (fell just short today). Placing stop just below the 50% fib.

Excellent

This is exactly the kind of thing that we want to be seeing in wave 2.

Bit of a divergence

What is it they say about more extreme readings in wave 2 than at the top?

TWM looks good here

TWM looking like a textbook long here - nice EW 1,2 - it might go lower than here, but probably not beyond the 76.4% at the wave i high - if this count is correct........

ES - top of wave 2 approaching?

SPX spread market - bull flag?

Fantasy divided by reality

Just playing around with ratios on StockCharts - as you do - and came across this idea (which I'm sure is not new) - divide investor sentiment, as measured by the bullish% index, by the actual index.

The results are quite interesting.

Beachy head?

Lots of folks shorting the close here. I'm not quite feeling it - thinking that any pullback will be a B wave of this wave 2 and lead eventually to higher prices before long.

At the small scale, we're seeing lots of bearish wedges, but they only seem to break down a little before the tape melts higher once more. As Bukowski points out, this can be a signal of a more powerful move in the opposite direction - bearish patterns are forming, but the bulls are still winning out - for now.

Put/call ratio has only just tipped into bullish territory and the McClellan is pretty much nowhere. I'd like to see divergences build on both in an ideal world.



UPDATE - today's candle was practically a doji, but it does have a very long tail, indicating that lower prices were rejected by the market - today, at least. Looking at the Hamster bands here, you can see how well price was contained by the BB(13,1.618) and to the upside by the MA(13).



Kenny has a very nice Elliott count here, that indicates that wave 2 could be completed already, but if this is wave 2 then it just looks too dang small to be complete right now, which is why I could see a pull back and then higher prices next week.

Friday night tune - be happy

SPX spread market

Bullish count here - we could be seeing the end of wave ii of c of 2 around here, in which case we should start to rally in wave iii sharpish.

Copper

Jeff Kohler at Option Addict points out how well copper has been doing as a leading indicator - it bottomed over two months before SPX in 2009 and led the fall in 2010.

SPX spread market

Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L)

EURUSD weekly

Quote of the day

The fact that monetary union without fiscal union would be unworkable the first time an economic crisis hit, and force federalism on the EU, has always been the barely concealed goal of the EMU project.

The general crisis that began in 2008 has yielded such good results for EU -- the Irish terrorized into signing the EU constitution, Iceland forced into the EU as a feudal supplicant, now a de facto European Ministry of Finance -- that you'd almost imagine these kind of disruptions to world order were planned on purpose to "move history forwards".

- commenter on Ambrose Evans Pritchard blog

Lloyds Banking Group (LLOY.L)

My cousin bought a barrow of these the other week and got in touch dismayed that he is in the red, so I took a look - and it looks pretty bullish right now to these eyes.

DJIA Spread Grid

Tinfoil hats at the ready

Well, you can't be too careful these days, can you...

This isn't science, is it?

Bishop Hill blogger, Andrew Mountford, talks to The Register about his book The Hockey Stick Illusion and the rapidly-unravelling state of climate "science".

Well worth a read.

EURUSD bearish wedge?

UPDATE: here's how it stands at 2020 GMT

Brent Crude

CPC

Looks like investors are pretty bearish right now. Another reason to be cautious on the short side.




[h/t Mike Vadon]

DAX & FTSE spreads

Dusting off my weekly chart of the DAX 30 spread market, it seems that we may be finding support from the top of the main down channel from the all-time high, as well as from the 50% fib retracement from the May 08 high.



And a zoomed in view on the hourly DAX



FTSE is at a similar juncture but looking weaker if anything

Hey, STUPID!

ZeroHedge has come up with a rather droll new sovereign debt index based on the CDS premiums attracted by class dunces Spain, Turkey, UK, Portugal, Italy and Dubai.



Nice inverted head and shoulders pattern you got there, Tyler - that baby is going to the moon!



[h/t - Guido]

SPX spread market - end of wave 1?

So most folks are saying that we are very probably into wave 3 at this point, maybe even on the verge of wave iii of 3, the most brutal part of the down-swing.

Me, I'm not so sure - if you look at the continuous /ES or the SPX spread-betting market that we have here in the UK, then it's fairly clear that the actual high in the market took place on Jan 11 out-of-hours - days prior to the intraday high in the SPX.

This produces a different count that suggests that wave 1 might only have just come to an end at Friday's close. Clearly the implication here is that we are going to get a sizeable bounce in Monday's trading if this is correct.

UPDATE: always check the weekly... just noticed, we can see clearly how we topped very close to the 61.8% fib retracement from the May 08 high - will we now find support at the 50% mark?



Sunday night bounce music for the SPX

McClellan Oscillator Diverging...

Option Addict has a timely post pointing out the current NYMO divergence.

Cable - triangle completing?

Cable. Been talking about a monster triangle this week. We have an under-throw and looking at this hourly chart, you could see a completed zig-zag (5-3-5) abc move down from the Jan 19 high for wave E of the triangle. As things stand, wave c is 1.618 times the length of wave a.

Whatever, I'd say if this is going to play out, it needs to bottom today.

S&P spread

Short the S&P via spread bet here.

S&P E-mini

The ES is sporting a five up after the US close tonight, even though most of it occurred outside of regular market opening hours - should see a retrace from here, then, but the low should hold.