AAPL

DJIA still on the march

Crude

A very successful trader told me he thinks oil is going to double this year. This does not look like a bullish chart to me though.

More on GBPEUR

Looks from this like either THE uncle point or at least an intermediate one might be approaching next few days

But then again, always join all the dots, cos the picture might look a little different

EURUSD - progress of wave 5

Mr TED gets the horn

Mr TED looking like he might have popped a Viagra a little earlier this week:

Could it be he thinks it's nearly business time?

SPX:GOLD

I thought a little while back that based upon what I could make out of a wave count, there looked a fair chance that SPX:GOLD might scrape to new recovery highs - it's pretty close right now:

GBPEUR

Looking at this pair the other way up tonight just because we can (and therefore probably should for the sake of balance/overcoming any bias)

Longer-term view on the daily - pretty clear we are in a fourth wave. Last time I looked at the full chart, I think it shaped up like a massive ABC - we are currently then in 4 of C in my preferred count:

And a bit of a zoomed-in view. Basically we may hit the top of the triangle, or over- or under-shoot it - at any rate, a break of the current trend line would seem to be worth a flutter...

BPSPX

V. similar to the BPNYA chart that Springheel Jack posted on the Slope.

Still another 7 days until the full moon, but - can we make it that far?

JNK:TLT - appetite for junk food has peaked?

SPY:VIX topping out?

As Steveo77 noted yesterday, SPX:VIX may be giving us a signal here - is that a flying doji star? Divergences across the internals too.

EURGBP - the b€llweather?

EURGBP is tracing out a fairly clear triangle, as noted earlier. Things are still looking good for the end-of-month turn window, I think.

The funny thing is what all this might mean for equities - after all, conventional wisdom has it that a strengthening dollar would be bearish for equities, which hasn't really been borne out by events thus far. So, what then would a weakening dollar do? Who fecking knows.

Aussie in the sweet spot?

Let's see what happens from here..

EURUSD 30min update

EURUSD looking a little sluggish

// just to note, that iv could very well be (a) of iv (maybe even more likely) - happily, that wouldn't change the immediate outlook

DJIA 60min wedge

FTSE weekly 133s

What can it all mean? I guess a break out of the (assumed) 133% extension of the channel (the upper line) would be incredibly bullish.

GBPCHF - decidedly poorly (still)

Funny that when I came to type the title for this post, I found that the title above was already in the browser memory! Ah, poor old GBP, it's really not in a good way... that might sound like schadenfreude, but it's going to get way beyond that stage, I fear.

CPCE - hint of bottom (fnar)

Is that the hint of a turn we see before us?

Russell 2000 expanding wedge

Mind the fibs (1930s edition)

SPY - big cash outflows Friday

More grist added to the interim top case.

TED spread - no sign of a bottom yet...

One thing that's interesting to note here is that ole TED was still dropping while we were all busy proclaiming the arrival of P3 in late January.

Shoulda been watching this lad...

SPX:GOLD - new recovery high on the way?

Rough and ready Elliott count here, but this looks like it could be heading to new highs - not really room to mark it on, but I'd put us in or at the end of wave iii of c at the right-hand edge of the chart, so iv and v still to come would leave scope for a run to new recovery highs - SPX to rise further, gold to fall, or some combination thereof.

Here's a possible count whereby gold could fall from here, but I have to say I'm a bit ambivalent on it:

Meanwhile, still rocking the Sunday lurve vibe:

Cable taking a breather at key support

Sunday Mornin' Stayin' In Bed Sweet Lovin' Tunes

Ohhhhhhhh yeah... love the intro to this - definitely like my all-time favourite Baz tune evah.

Mac and Copper and that - diverging again

So there's a bit of divergence here from copper futes and the McClellan.



NY up/down volume ratio too:



And NYAD...



And the high/low ratio too...



But Mr VIX has not issued a sell signal yet, unlike the January top, which might suggest that any dip will be bought? Clearly, I am still eyeing the 76.4%/full moon time window in two weeks time when I say that.



However, a quick peek at 2007 says that maybe we shouldn't expect any cut-and-dried signals:

Not playing

Well, at least until Easter.

SPX sums up the state of the game right now as far as I am concerned. You know it's going to new highs, but it's looking pretty overbought right here and has been getting a bit choppy the last few days.

Therefore we might see a little retest of the down-sloping trendline while it gathers its breath before thundering on towards the 1200 mark.

Mole has some interesting stuff on the latest ISEE figures - we are seeing extreme readings the like of which were last recorded (yes) in autumn 2007.

Nuff said.

It's about time (ahem)

TK's time analysis over at the Slope proved to be spot on for the SPX high on my birthday, so I thought I'd see where 76.4% would take us:



All fools' day - how apt. This would gel well with the full moon on March 30th:

Big Picture SPX

FTSE

Sigh

Another defeat tag today from TK. Usually these are pretty good at marking intermediate highs, as he notes himself. SPX looks as near as dammit from breaching new highs, but wouldn't that be a sneaky place to tumble from? Market always seem to turn Friday at the close, whatever way it's going.

Here's the bullish view.



UPDATE: just checked - next full moon is March 30, 2010. As you were..

UPDATE 2: Kenny has the elegant explanation for why this is all bollocks and the crash begins next week

AUDUSD - looks like it was one more high then

Got stopped out on my short for no loss. Bit more difficult to manage trades now I can only devote an hour or two to managing positions a day. No matter - this motherfucker still has me salivating. We are farting around in a bearish wedge on the 15 min chart and just waiting for the broadening wedge top to break on the daily. Gonna be a gusher when it does.

NYMO and copper diverging

McClellan and copper are both divergent on the new SPX high here.

Shorting here

Nasdaq looking like it's hit the wall




Having a pop at AUDUSD here as well - I really fancy the Aussie mahusively overvalued. May well try to get short AUDJPY later but don't want to be too greedy right now.

EURGBP wedge

Previously, I had thought that we were in a large scale correction for this pair, but this could well be a developing Elliott fourth wave triangle, in which case a sharp run to new highs would be in order, probably in the first half of this year.