GBPEUR - Harbinger of Euro Weakness

Naturally this is just one possible interpretation of the tea leaves, but the potential for a turn is there all the same.

Bonus chart - USDJPY:

Not posted in a while

It's easier just to post charts as and when on Disqus over at Mole's place. But I thought I'd get this one down, just in case. Was wondering whether anyone else on the planet had seen the ending diagonal in the SPX into the close tonight, but maybe they were just keeping schtum about it.

Target is the origin of wave 1, which would be around SPX 1055. It is a full moon tomorrow and the bears all seem to have given up in disgust, so you never know.

SPX abc?

Was just reading this over on Zero Hedge.

Now you don't have to agree with his w4 count (it's only an exercise in contingency thinking anyway), but it got me thinking. There is the nagging suspicion that the fall into May 6 is an abc - then I noticed this:

A possibility to keep an eye on.

DAX

Man, I wish I'd been watching this chart May 6th. A no-brainer long at the low.

Still, right now, if not a no-brainer, there is a decent chance we made a low here - DAX was nowhere near a new low today, unlike the SPX.

A bullish potential count - target would be new highs:

GBPUSD triangle

I like this one as a rally into the general election this coming Thursday, May 6, would set up a nice buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news opportunity, especially with the Tories coming back in the polls now.

Whatever happened to that triangle in GBPEUR?

It left it until the last possible moment to turn is what. I don't have a copy of the Elliott Wave Principle to hand, but I'm fairly sure that the pattern is invalidated if wave e goes beyond the high of wave c; the high on Friday was a mere 7bps from doing so, but then went on to paint a massive bearish engulfing candle.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this one gap down at the open tonight.

Euro about to get its mojo back?

It would appear that the long-term triangle I have been watching has reached maturity; we are there - wherever there is.

Think I might get out of my EURUSD short...

UPDATE: talking of which, I was looking again at EURUSD. Clearly, we could have seen the low already last week, but I was having difficulty squaring this with a three wave rise and then a seeming impulse down from the corrective high. There is a way, however...

UPDATE 2: got carried away and was a bit early shorting this mother - got stopped out - but the bearish engulfing candle came right on cue...

Time to sell the rip on Monday methinks!

EURUSD: chocks away?

There is always a bullish alternative count; in this case that would be that we already completed wave 5 and thus the huge impulse down from the November high.

But it looks a bit short - under 61.8% of wave 1 - so I figure it's got to be worth a punt short at this point as the alternative (pictured) is that we are about to start (or have already) wave iii of 5 down.

EURUSD - progress of wave 5

GBPEUR

Looking at this pair the other way up tonight just because we can (and therefore probably should for the sake of balance/overcoming any bias)

Longer-term view on the daily - pretty clear we are in a fourth wave. Last time I looked at the full chart, I think it shaped up like a massive ABC - we are currently then in 4 of C in my preferred count:

And a bit of a zoomed-in view. Basically we may hit the top of the triangle, or over- or under-shoot it - at any rate, a break of the current trend line would seem to be worth a flutter...

EURUSD 30min update

EURUSD looking a little sluggish

// just to note, that iv could very well be (a) of iv (maybe even more likely) - happily, that wouldn't change the immediate outlook

DJIA 60min wedge

SPX:GOLD - new recovery high on the way?

Rough and ready Elliott count here, but this looks like it could be heading to new highs - not really room to mark it on, but I'd put us in or at the end of wave iii of c at the right-hand edge of the chart, so iv and v still to come would leave scope for a run to new recovery highs - SPX to rise further, gold to fall, or some combination thereof.

Here's a possible count whereby gold could fall from here, but I have to say I'm a bit ambivalent on it:

Meanwhile, still rocking the Sunday lurve vibe:

Sigh

Another defeat tag today from TK. Usually these are pretty good at marking intermediate highs, as he notes himself. SPX looks as near as dammit from breaching new highs, but wouldn't that be a sneaky place to tumble from? Market always seem to turn Friday at the close, whatever way it's going.

Here's the bullish view.



UPDATE: just checked - next full moon is March 30, 2010. As you were..

UPDATE 2: Kenny has the elegant explanation for why this is all bollocks and the crash begins next week

EURGBP wedge

Previously, I had thought that we were in a large scale correction for this pair, but this could well be a developing Elliott fourth wave triangle, in which case a sharp run to new highs would be in order, probably in the first half of this year.

ES - RIP wave 2 [again]?

[of course as this is the top of wave Y, we could also get wave B down or indeed another X wave and then wave Z - 61.8% retrace does seem to be enough although maybe the time is a little bit short]

[[then again, wave 1, 4 weeks exactly, this would make wave 2, 2 weeks exactly so...]]

Friday night tune

TWM looks good here

TWM looking like a textbook long here - nice EW 1,2 - it might go lower than here, but probably not beyond the 76.4% at the wave i high - if this count is correct........

ES - top of wave 2 approaching?

Beachy head?

Lots of folks shorting the close here. I'm not quite feeling it - thinking that any pullback will be a B wave of this wave 2 and lead eventually to higher prices before long.

At the small scale, we're seeing lots of bearish wedges, but they only seem to break down a little before the tape melts higher once more. As Bukowski points out, this can be a signal of a more powerful move in the opposite direction - bearish patterns are forming, but the bulls are still winning out - for now.

Put/call ratio has only just tipped into bullish territory and the McClellan is pretty much nowhere. I'd like to see divergences build on both in an ideal world.



UPDATE - today's candle was practically a doji, but it does have a very long tail, indicating that lower prices were rejected by the market - today, at least. Looking at the Hamster bands here, you can see how well price was contained by the BB(13,1.618) and to the upside by the MA(13).



Kenny has a very nice Elliott count here, that indicates that wave 2 could be completed already, but if this is wave 2 then it just looks too dang small to be complete right now, which is why I could see a pull back and then higher prices next week.

Friday night tune - be happy