Saturday 13 February 2010

Beachy head?

Lots of folks shorting the close here. I'm not quite feeling it - thinking that any pullback will be a B wave of this wave 2 and lead eventually to higher prices before long.

At the small scale, we're seeing lots of bearish wedges, but they only seem to break down a little before the tape melts higher once more. As Bukowski points out, this can be a signal of a more powerful move in the opposite direction - bearish patterns are forming, but the bulls are still winning out - for now.

Put/call ratio has only just tipped into bullish territory and the McClellan is pretty much nowhere. I'd like to see divergences build on both in an ideal world.



UPDATE - today's candle was practically a doji, but it does have a very long tail, indicating that lower prices were rejected by the market - today, at least. Looking at the Hamster bands here, you can see how well price was contained by the BB(13,1.618) and to the upside by the MA(13).



Kenny has a very nice Elliott count here, that indicates that wave 2 could be completed already, but if this is wave 2 then it just looks too dang small to be complete right now, which is why I could see a pull back and then higher prices next week.

Friday night tune - be happy

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