I thought I'd check back with how it looked in 2007/8 for a bit of comparison:
Pause for thought.
UPDATE: but then again, maybe we should do an apples-for-apples comparison, and see what happened during the third wave of the 2007-9 decline. When I do that, it seems that maybe what we are looking at is a replay of then:
UPDATE 2: errrrrr, except NYAD was leading then, rather than lagging as now. So back to my original conclusion!
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